Nigerians Now Earning $824, Less Than in 1960, Says AfDB Boss Adesina

By Emmanuel Kwada

Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has sounded the alarm on Nigeria’s deepening economic woes, highlighting that the country’s GDP per capita has slumped to a mere $824—far below the $1,847 recorded at independence in 1960.

This stark regression, he argues, underscores a troubling reality: Nigerians are poorer today than they were 64 years ago, despite the nation’s status as Africa’s largest economy by total GDP.

Adesina delivered these remarks in a statement on Thursday, following his keynote address at the 20th anniversary dinner of Chapel Hill Denham, a prominent Nigerian investment firm, held in Lagos.

His speech painted a grim picture of Nigeria’s economic trajectory, attributing the decline to decades of policy failures, weak institutions, an over-dependence on crude oil exports, and a persistent neglect of critical sectors.

Our GDP per capita in 1960 was $1,847. Today, it stands at $824

Yet, amid the critique, he offered a clarion call for bold, transformative reforms to reposition Nigeria as a global economic contender by 2050.

“Our GDP per capita in 1960 was $1,847. Today, it stands at $824. Nigerians are worse off than 64 years ago,” Adesina declared, laying bare the scale of the nation’s economic regression.

To contextualize this figure, he drew a striking comparison with South Korea, a country that, in 1960, had a lower GDP per capita than Nigeria but has since surged to over $36,000, propelled by industrialization and strategic economic policies. Nigeria, by contrast, has faltered, its per capita income shrinking as its population has ballooned from 45 million in 1960 to over 200 million today.

Nigeria’s GDP per capita peaking at $3,222 in 2014 before sliding to $2,416 in 2023

Data from the World Bank corroborates Adesina’s claims, showing Nigeria’s GDP per capita peaking at $3,222 in 2014 before sliding to $2,416 in 2023, with further declines projected amid inflation and currency depreciation.

The AfDB chief’s $824 figure, if reflective of the latest 2025 estimates, signals an even steeper drop, driven by a weakening naira and stagnant growth in real terms. This places Nigeria well below the sub-Saharan African average of $1,689 in 2023, a damning indictment of its economic management.

Adesina pinpointed a litany of structural failures behind this decline. “Nigeria’s economic structure remains deeply flawed and unsustainable,” he said, citing an over-reliance on oil, which accounts for over 75% of government revenues despite contributing just 6% to GDP in recent years.

Nigeria’s economic structure remains deeply flawed and unsustainable

This dependence has left the economy vulnerable to global oil price shocks, while decades of underinvestment in agriculture, manufacturing, and infrastructure have stifled diversification.

Policy missteps have compounded the problem. Inconsistent fiscal and monetary strategies—such as costly fuel subsidies and an overvalued exchange rate until mid-2023—have drained public coffers, with the fiscal deficit hovering at 5.1% of GDP in 2023, according to AfDB data.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Weak governance and institutional fragility have further eroded investor confidence, while corruption has siphoned off resources that could have fueled development. “We’ve mismanaged our natural wealth,” Adesina lamented, noting that Nigeria’s $6.5 trillion in natural resources has failed to translate into prosperity for its people.

Despite the bleak outlook, Adesina’s message was not one of despair but of urgent action. “Nigeria belongs in the league of developed nations. To get there, we must shift our mindset and pursue rapid economic growth,” he urged.

We’ve mismanaged our natural wealth

He outlined five key priorities to reverse the tide: universal electricity access, world-class infrastructure, rapid industrialization, innovation-driven growth, and a competitive agricultural sector.

Electricity remains a linchpin, with over 85 million Nigerians lacking reliable power, hobbling businesses and households alike. Adesina also championed industrialization, pointing to the $19 billion Dangote Refinery—Africa’s largest—as a model for private sector-led transformation.

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“We must become Africa’s industrial powerhouse,” he asserted, urging Nigeria to leverage its $300 billion in pension fund assets, diaspora talent, and capital markets to fund such ventures.

Agriculture, once the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, must be revitalized, he argued, citing the AfDB’s $8 billion investment in African food security over the past seven years as a template. Innovation, too, is critical, with initiatives like the $614 million I-DICE program—co-funded by the AfDB—aimed at spurring digital and creative enterprises and creating 6 million jobs.

Strong institutions, policy consistency, and good governance are non-negotiable

Adesina was clear that no reform can succeed without addressing Nigeria’s governance deficit. “Strong institutions, policy consistency, and good governance are non-negotiable,” he warned. Without tackling corruption and ensuring accountability, Nigeria risks squandering its potential, leaving its youthful population—over 60% of whom are under 25—trapped in poverty and unemployment.

He envisioned a Nigeria of 2050 that is “deliberately shaped, developed, corruption-free, and leading the rest of Africa.” Yet, he cautioned that this future hinges on bold, structural reforms—not incremental tweaks. “Underdevelopment should not be accepted as our destiny. We must break free from this pattern,” he insisted.

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