2026 Set to Be Second-Hottest Year on Record – EU Warns

By Emmanuel Kwada

The year 2026 is on course to become the second-hottest year ever recorded, as an exceptionally strong El Niño weather pattern adds to rising global temperatures driven by human activities, the European Union’s climate monitoring service has warned.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service disclosed this in its monthly climate bulletin released on Friday, noting that 2026 still has a 20 per cent chance of matching or surpassing 2024 as the hottest year on record.

October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures.

According to the report, global temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2026, while the four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to cross the threshold.

The 1.5°C limit is the preferred temperature target under the 2015 Paris Agreement, which seeks to prevent the worst effects of climate change.

Copernicus also reported that October was the warmest October ever recorded, with average global surface air temperatures reaching 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, defined as the period between 1850 and 1900.

It was the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.

“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates Copernicus.

She attributed the additional warming to an exceptionally strong El Niño phenomenon, which is adding heat to a climate already affected by human activities.

The warning comes as global weather forecasters predict that the ongoing El Niño could become the strongest ever observed, with the phenomenon expected to reach its peak later this year.

El Niño could become the strongest ever observed, with the phenomenon expected to reach its peak later this year.

Copernicus said the intensifying weather pattern set a record temperature in a key Pacific Ocean zone last month.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It influences weather patterns across the world, increasing the risk of droughts and floods while worsening the effects of human-driven global warming.

Forecasters have warned that the phenomenon could also contribute to making 2027 the hottest year on record.

The climate warning comes ahead of the United Nations’ two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkey, scheduled to begin on Monday, November 9.

The meeting follows a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, severe heatwaves across Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.

At the 2015 climate summit in Paris, countries agreed to keep global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.

However, the United Nations warned in September that the long-term 1.5°C target would be breached within a matter of years.

Scientists have continued to call for deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from fossil fuels, to limit the period during which global temperatures remain above the 1.5°C threshold and bring them down as quickly as possible.

Source: AFP.